Preprint on the origin and early spread of SARS-​CoV-2 in Europe

Our preprint on "external page The origin and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe" became available today! In summary, we estimate the origin and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe prior to border closures based on viral genome sequences using a phylodynamic model. We confirm that the predominant European outbreak most likely started in Italy and spread from there. This outbreak was probably seeded by a transmission event in either Hubei or Germany. In particular, we find that before the first border closures in Europe, the rate of new cases occurring from within-country transmission was within the estimated bounds on the rate of new migration cases.