Preprint posted on the origin and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe
We estimated the origin and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe from viral genome sequences using a phylodynamic model. Our results are now available as a preprint.
by
Sarah Ann Nadeau
Our main findings are that the predominant European outbreak spread from Italy and was likely seeded by a transmission event in either Hubei or Germany. Before national borders in Europe were closed, we estimate that the rate of new cases arising from within-country transmisison was within the estimated bounds on the rate of new import cases. Our full report is available as a preprint external page here.